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Cold mirror observation, cold chain logistics industry chain panorama and industry environment analysis in the new era

2024-11-04

1

The basic characteristics of cold chain logistics

Complexity: The quality of refrigerated items in the circulation process changes with the change of temperature and time, and different products must have corresponding temperature control and storage time. This greatly improves the complexity of cold chain logistics, so cold chain logistics is a huge system engineering;

Coordination: As perishable fresh products are not easy to store, cold chain logistics must be efficient operation, each link in the logistics process must have coordination, so as to ensure the stable operation of the whole chain;

High cost nature: In order to ensure that perishable fresh products are always in the prescribed low temperature conditions in all aspects of circulation, temperature control equipment must be installed, and refrigerated trucks or low-temperature warehouses must be used. In order to improve the efficiency of logistics operation, advanced information systems must be adopted. All these determine that the cost of cold chain logistics is higher than that of other logistics systems.

2

Panoramic analysis of industrial chain

The cold chain logistics industry chain can be divided into three parts: upstream cold chain infrastructure suppliers, midstream cold chain logistics service enterprises and downstream users. Upstream including refrigerated trucks, refrigerated containers and refrigerated equipment production enterprises; The middle reaches can be divided into transportation, storage and integrated cold chain logistics enterprises. Downstream users are mainly distributed in food, medical products and other industries.

2.1, upstream cold chain

According to the statistics of the China Cold Alliance, the cold storage capacity of the enterprises in the above chart reached 65.78 million tons in 2024, an increase of 7.4%. East China led the country in cold storage, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, accounting for 31.3% of the country's cold storage. The explosive growth of fresh and pharmaceutical cold chain demand is directly reflected in the investment market. Since 2020, cold storage investment transactions have become increasingly active, and domestic and foreign capital have accelerated the pace of layout of the cold storage market: Blackstone's 4.4 billion yuan acquisition of logistics assets in the Greater Bay Area has an 80,000 tons cold storage project; Hans acquired a cold chain warehouse project located in Dongguan; Source Capital received all the shares of Rongqing Logistics held by CJ Logistics.

Participants in cold storage investment and development include: 1) government-led investment (national backbone cold chain logistics base, meat storage warehouse, etc.); 2) Logistics services (ports, logistics service providers); 3) Logistics real estate developers; 4) Investment institutions; 5) Downstream users (agricultural batch market, commercial retail, food production), etc.

Among them, the national backbone cold chain logistics base, high-quality logistics real estate developers and investment institutions are active in the field of cold storage investment activities; In addition, third-party logistics service provider enterprises also have high demands for investment in cold storage construction for business development.

In addition to the cold storage trading market heat, cold storage construction is also very hot. Wanwei Cold Chain, the United States, Asia cold and other logistics real estate and storage enterprises continue to accelerate the layout of the cold storage network in the country, and have successively built and rebuilt high-standard warehouse cold storage across the country.

Compared with ordinary high-standard warehouse, cold storage investment and construction is more complex, management and operation are more refined, income is more diversified, and its early project investment is greater for investors. At the same time, the investability of different types of cold storage is also very different, from the investment point of view, functional cold storage (such as distribution cold storage and distribution cold storage) to undertake storage, distribution, distribution and processing functions, compared with storage cold storage is more versatile, more investable.

The total market size of upstream infrastructure providers (equipment) is estimated to be 60-70 billion yuan (excluding infrastructure), and the total scale of infrastructure construction will be about 165 billion yuan by 2025. In 2020, the total market size of midstream cold chain logistics services is about 383.1 billion yuan, and it is expected that the total market size of cold chain logistics services will reach 550 billion yuan by 2025. After the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed the implementation of the urban and rural cold chain logistics infrastructure to make up for the shortcomings of the project, China's cold chain infrastructure construction accelerated.

2.2. Midstream cold chain

Traditional cold chain logistics enterprises mostly have the advantages of cold storage resources and storage land, but they need to invest more capital and time costs in the network operation of cold chain logistics. In the future, cold chain logistics will develop in the direction of light assets, and the platform development of the integration of Internet platforms and logistics networks will be a new direction. With the continuous development of fresh e-commerce and e-commerce as well as the changes in the consumption structure of urban and rural residents, consumers place orders on the fresh platform to become the mainstream consumption mode, thus forcing upstream cold chain warehousing and transportation enterprises to rely on the direction of platform logistics service providers in the future.

In addition to having self-operated cold warehouses, cold chain logistics enterprises also establish collaborative or co-distribution warehouses with multiple suppliers. In recent years, a large number of enterprises in China have established multiple common cold warehouses, in which the management system, operation process, training work and logistics cold chain related supporting infrastructure are provided by cold chain logistics enterprises, and direct sales of origin are achieved by shortening the intermediate links.

2.3, downstream cold chain

The downstream demand of cold chain logistics is mainly food, and food is divided into agricultural products, poultry meat, dairy products and other sub-products, and the proportion of food cold chain logistics is close to 90%, which is the main application of cold chain logistics. Cold chain logistics enterprises by building a supply chain selection platform, reduce the price of goods, and benefit upstream and downstream customers, while providing a closed transportation environment for fresh food, thereby reducing the product loss rate. Cold chain logistics establishes a direct supply system from suppliers to the channel end by building a volume supply chain platform to select goods, and reduces the intermediate links in the fresh circulation process. Taking meat as an example, cold chain transportation is 45% less than normal temperature transportation, and the markup rate is only 40%.

The downstream needs of cold chain logistics also include pharmaceutical cold chain, which has a high threshold, and the circulation of vaccines, injections, tinctures, oral drugs, external drugs, blood products and other drugs that need to be stored and transported under low temperature conditions all belong to the category of pharmaceutical cold chain logistics. The pharmaceutical cold chain industry is strictly regulated, the threshold is high, the early investment is large, and a certain customer base is required to support the acquisition of new business, so the pharmaceutical cold chain is very different from the food cold chain.

3

Business model

In the production and sales chain of frozen food, cold chain logistics is a very important part, which can be broken down into warehousing, transportation, distribution and other links. Driven by the industrial tuyere, many distinctive representative enterprises have emerged in every link of the cold chain logistics industry.

Throughout the domestic cold chain service providers, there are a total of warehousing, transportation, urban distribution, comprehensive, agricultural products trading, supply chain, electricity supplier, Internet + cold chain logistics and the fourth class.

3.1, storage type

Uneven distribution of cold storage industry concentration is low. When it comes to cold chain logistics, we have to say that the warehousing link is often referred to as cold storage. As the main infrastructure of cold chain logistics, China's cold storage resources are still insufficient, and there is still a gap with developed countries in Europe and the United States. According to industry analysts, China's cold storage also presents the phenomenon of unbalanced distribution of resources, backward refrigeration technology, and obsolete storage equipment.

In the warehousing model, Swire Cold Chain and Pfius have developed rapidly and are called representatives of the industry. In addition to the foreign enterprises such as Swire Group and Pfius, a number of excellent cold chain storage operators have also emerged in China, such as Henan Fresh Easy Supply Chain, Shanghai Zhengming Modern Logistics, Shanghai Jinjiang International Low temperature Logistics, Chengdu Yinli cold storage Logistics and so on.

3.2. Transportation type

From enterprise logistics to logistics enterprises. The so-called transport type mainly refers to the low-temperature transport business of goods, including trunk transport, regional distribution and urban distribution.

3.3, distribution type

Advocate intensive co-allocation to build a national network. In the cold chain logistics industry, the most common is the distribution enterprise. They are mainly engaged in urban low-temperature storage and distribution business, and their cold chain logistics vehicles shuttle in the streets of the city.

It is understood that Beijing Express line not only launched the cold chain city distribution, cold chain less load business and cold chain home distribution three kinds of business, but also launched three cold chain products for the three business segments, Qiashida, About Shida and punctual, mainly serving supermarket suppliers, supermarket distribution centers, chain catering distribution centers, fresh electricity suppliers and other four categories of customers.

3.4, comprehensive

Diversified operation and distribution proportion. The so-called comprehensive type refers to the integrated business mainly engaged in low-temperature warehousing, trunk transportation and urban distribution, and the representative enterprises are merchants Meileng, Shanghai Guangde, Beijing Zhongleng and so on. Different from a single cold chain logistics enterprise, its business is more extensive, involving various aspects such as warehousing, transportation and distribution.

3.5, agricultural products trading type

Wholesale market of agricultural products as the main body engaged in low-temperature storage business.

3.6, supply chain type

The core of the tuyere is stable. The so-called supply chain refers to the core enterprise, through the control of information flow, logistics, capital flow, from procurement to the terminal to provide low-temperature transportation, processing, warehousing, distribution services, and then the distribution network to the hands of consumers.

3.7, e-commerce type

Strong momentum to optimize resource integration. In the business model of cold chain logistics, e-commerce cold chain logistics is an emerging model, mainly refers to the cold chain platform independently constructed by fresh e-commerce enterprises, in addition to their own use, they can also provide cold chain logistics services for customers on the e-commerce platform. Among them, SF Express cold transport and rookie cold chain are especially representative.

3.8, Internet + cold chain logistics

Rely on big data, Internet of Things and other technologies, integrate logistics finance and other services, and build a trading platform for Internet + cold chain logistics.

3.9 Fourth class

Companies that provide cold chain logistics planning, consulting, cold chain logistics information system, cold chain supply chain management and other activities for first, second and third parties.

At present, the competitors in the cold chain logistics market can be divided into four categories: the transformation of traditional logistics enterprises, manufacturers' self-established and self-operated cold chain departments, professional cold chain service providers, and joint ventures established by foreign cold chain giants and domestic enterprises.

4

Cold chain logistics industry market analysis in 2024

4.1. Demand is growing steadily

In 2023, the total demand for cold chain logistics in China reached about 350 million tons, an increase of 6.1%. This growth is mainly due to the improvement of consumers' requirements for fresh food quality and the rapid development of e-commerce, catering and other industries. At the same time, the number of refrigerated vehicles was about 432,000, an increase of 12.9%, and the popularity and utilization of new energy refrigerated vehicles were significantly strengthened, laying the foundation for the green development of cold chain logistics.

4.2. Continuous improvement of infrastructure

Investment in cold chain infrastructure construction will reach about 58.55 billion yuan in 2023, up 8.2% year-on-year. The total amount of cold storage was about 228 million cubic meters, an increase of 8.3%, of which the proportion of high standard cold storage increased to 62%. This shows that China's cold chain logistics industry has achieved remarkable results in infrastructure construction, providing strong support for the further development of the industry.

4.3. The cold chain treatment rate of agricultural products has been improved

The low-temperature treatment rate of agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables, meat and aquatic products will reach 23%, 78% and 80% respectively in 2023, all higher than the previous year. This shows that agricultural cold chain logistics plays an important role in ensuring food safety and improving the added value of agricultural products.

5

In-depth analysis of investment environment of cold chain logistics industry in the second half of 2024

5.1. Analysis of policy environment

In recent years, the Chinese government has attached great importance to the development of the cold chain logistics industry and introduced a series of policy measures to support it. These policies not only provide a strong policy guarantee and financial support for the development of the cold chain logistics industry, but also create a good investment environment for investors. It is expected that in the next few years, the policy environment will continue to maintain its support for the cold chain logistics industry, providing strong support for the rapid development of the industry.

5.2 Economic environment analysis

The sustained and stable growth of China's economy has provided a broad market space and development opportunities for the cold chain logistics industry. With the improvement of residents' consumption level and the acceleration of consumption upgrading trend, people's requirements for food safety and quality are getting higher and higher, and the demand for cold chain logistics will continue to grow. At the same time, the rapid development of e-commerce, catering and other industries has also brought new growth points and development space for the cold chain logistics industry.

5.3. Social environment analysis

With the continuous improvement of social awareness of food safety and environmental protection, the social responsibility and environmental protection requirements of the cold chain logistics industry are also getting higher and higher. On the one hand, cold chain logistics enterprises need to strengthen the supervision and control ability of food safety to ensure the quality and safety of goods; On the other hand, they also need to actively adopt environmentally friendly technologies and equipment to reduce energy consumption and emissions during operations and achieve green sustainable development. The changes of these social and environmental factors will have a profound impact on the development of the cold chain logistics industry.

5.4. Technical environment analysis

The application of advanced technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data and artificial intelligence in the cold chain logistics industry will continue to enhance the intelligence and information level of the industry. The application of these technologies can help enterprises realize real-time monitoring and management of the whole process of cold chain logistics, improve operational efficiency and service quality; At the same time, it can also help enterprises to carry out market analysis and prediction, and provide strong support for decision-making. Therefore, it will be of great significance for investors to pay attention to and grasp these technological trends.

6

Future development of cold chain logistics industry

6.1. Accelerated industry integration

With the intensification of market competition and the improvement of industry norms, the future cold chain logistics industry will accelerate the pace of integration. Competitive enterprises will expand market share and enhance competitiveness through merger and reorganization, strategic cooperation, etc. At the same time, some small and weak enterprises will be eliminated or transformed and upgraded.

6.2, green development trend is obvious

Under the background of increasingly strict environmental protection policies and increasing consumer awareness of environmental protection, green development will become an important trend in the cold chain logistics industry. Enterprises will actively use energy-saving and environmentally friendly cold chain equipment and technology to reduce consumption and emissions; It will also promote the use of recyclable, degradable packaging materials to reduce environmental impact.

6.3, the level of intelligence continues to improve

With the continuous development and application of technologies such as the Internet of Things, big data, and artificial intelligence, the intelligent level of the cold chain logistics industry will continue to improve in the future. Enterprises will realize automated operations and precise control through intelligent equipment; Optimize operational decisions and improve management efficiency through big data analytics; Improve service quality and customer satisfaction through AI technology.

6.4. Cross-border integration and innovation become a new driving force for development

In the future, the cold chain logistics industry will achieve more extensive cross-border integration and innovation with other industrial fields. For example, the deep integration with e-commerce, catering, medical and other industries will promote the development of cold chain logistics to a higher level and a wider field; Cooperation with financial and insurance institutions will provide more comprehensive risk protection and financial service support for cold chain logistics; Cooperation with scientific research institutions, universities, etc., will inject more innovative vitality and talent resources into cold chain logistics.

Driven by multiple favorable factors, China's cold chain logistics industry has shown great development potential and broad market prospects. With the continuous upgrading of consumption structure and the increasing awareness of food safety, cold chain logistics will become an important link to ensure food quality and safety. For investors, choosing cold chain logistics enterprises with technological innovation ability, market expansion ability and comprehensive management strength for investment will be expected to obtain considerable return on investment in the future. However, in the face of the rapid development of the industry, we also need to be clearly aware of potential challenges and problems, such as cost pressure, environmental protection requirements, and take appropriate measures to deal with them. Therefore, the government, enterprises and investors should work together to jointly promote the development of China's cold chain logistics industry towards a more efficient, green and sustainable direction, and contribute to the prosperity and progress of society.

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